Understanding Russian strategic culture and the low-yield nuclear threat

A new RAND report examines how Russian strategic culture shapes its nuclear posture, with a particular focus on non-strategic nuclear weapons (NSNWs). Commissioned by the UK Ministry of Defence and the Nuclear Deterrence Fund, the study draws on historical, cultural and ideological analysis to provide a nuanced understanding of the motivations underlying Russia’s nuclear doctrine and decision making.

Through scenario planning and expert interviews, the report explores the contexts in which Russia might consider the use of NSNWs, especially in relation to NATO and ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The findings reveal that Russia’s strategic culture is characterised by a zero-sum worldview, a strong sense of vulnerability and a reliance on nuclear deterrence to compensate for perceived conventional weaknesses.

The report underscores how these factors drive Russia’s willingness to engage in nuclear signalling and to consider nuclear escalation under certain conditions. It also highlights the challenges these dynamics pose for NATO, particularly in terms of deterrence, escalation management and communication.

Read more at RAND