The U.S. is re-evaluating the threat of Chinese military action in Taiwan

Recent years have brought heightened concern in Western intelligence circles that China could invade the self-governing island of Taiwan as early as next year. But the United States now says an imminent attack is unlikely.

An annual threat assessment by the U.S. intelligence community said Beijing prefers to achieve so-called unification without the use of force, and recognizes that an amphibious assault would be extremely difficult and carry a high risk of failure, especially if the U.S. intervenes.

“Beijing almost certainly will consider a variety of factors in deciding whether and how to pursue military approaches to unification, including PLA readiness, the actions and politics of Taiwan, and whether or not the U.S. will militarily intervene on Taiwan’s behalf,” the report said, referring to China’s People’s Liberation Army.

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