AI has enhanced Iran’s asymmetric playbook during the 2026 conflict

Between January and June 2026, Tehran survived unprecedented military, economic, and political pressure by relying on its longstanding hybrid warfare model: blending asymmetric military operations, cyber operations, information warfare, proxy attacks, and coercive state control. Artificial intelligence (AI) enhanced these capabilities, acting as a force multiplier and almost certainly increasing the speed, scale, and effectiveness of Iranian operations. Ultimately, Iran demonstrated that its strategic resilience does not depend on possessing the most advanced AI capabilities; rather, the source of Iranian power remains the asymmetric playbook itself.

During these crises, Iran compensated for conventional military and economic disadvantages through scalable, low-cost, and deniable asymmetric capabilities. Iran’s use of AI almost certainly improved its cyber capabilities, accelerated the production of propaganda and influence narratives, and expanded the reach of information campaigns. AI’s impact on Iranian military operations is less clear, as Iran’s battlefield use of AI has not been independently confirmed. However, the support Russia provided to Iranian military operations increases the likelihood that AI-enabled tactics and capabilities, refined in Ukraine, contributed to Iranian drone attacks against Israel and Persian Gulf states. Domestically, AI-driven surveillance systems deployed during and after the 2022 “Woman, Life, Freedom” protests likely facilitated the Iranian regime’s violent suppression of unrest in January 2026.

As low-level conflict persists and the risk of a return to war with the United States and Israel remains heightened, Iran’s expanding use of AI-enabled cyber operations will likely pose an elevated threat to Western and regional critical infrastructure and vital industries. Iran’s rapid production and dissemination of AI-generated propaganda expose corporate and state entities to highly targeted influence operations, risking erosion of customer and citizen trust. As Iran rebuilds its military arsenal, its acquisition of Russian-backed drone capabilities will pose an ongoing risk to critical infrastructure and maritime logistics in the region. Across all sectors, Iran’s hybrid warfare capabilities will likely continue to pose a risk to digital and physical assets, requiring organizations to build resilience against AI-enhanced asymmetric threats that are more scalable and harder to attribute.

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