Quantum power parity: The next front in U.S.–China strategic competition

Quantum power parity is a strategic situation in which rival great powers, in this case the United States and China, have amassed quantum capabilities to the point that neither side can grant the other a decisive technological edge without either attaining a lasting advantage. In contrast to nuclear parity, which is kept at bay by transparent warhead counts, mutually assured destruction doctrine, and formal arms-control treaties like the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT) and the New START treaty, quantum parity is opaque and hidden by design, capabilities are a dual purpose, proliferate in civilian and commercial markets, and are not readily verifiable. This structural deviation has immediate implications for crisis stability. When decision-makers cannot predictably evaluate the quantum posture of an adversary, it is reasonable to expect that the tight decision-making timelines and information asymmetries eroded by quantum sensing and computing would amplify the risk of miscalculation, preemptive action, and the attenuation of the gravity with which nuclear parity was historically maintained. Quantum power parity is a less stabilizing equilibrium than nuclear power parity, and the comprehension of this gap is indispensable to the adoption of sound policy.

Over the next decade, it will not be an individual “breakthrough” machine that causes the most significant strategic consequences of quantum science, but rather the amassing of capabilities in sensing, communications, and at least some classes of computation that amount to mutual denial. This state, quantum power parity, implies that each of the major powers will have specific tools to undermine the leverage of the others, and mutual renunciation is the natural consequence of the distributed form of quantum capabilities. Due to the coexistence of sensing, computing, and communications technologies among various actors, there is no monopoly among states that can create denial capacity.

Both actors acquire means to undermine the advantages of one another: quantum sensors can reveal hidden forces, quantum computing poses a threat to encrypted communications, and quantum key distribution can provide selective protection. Distributed development implies the absence of a centralized control point at which either can stop the other from achieving the tools of denial, making them equally vulnerable rather than one-sided (such as revealing hidden forces or breaking the secrecy of cryptography), even though neither may achieve a long-term decisive advantage. The notion can help explain why military and diplomatic actions have ceased to be used to achieve uncontested technical superiority, and why investment decisions have focused not only on expanding the range of offensive capabilities but also on strengthening bases.

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