Cheap missiles, not drones, will win the next air war

U.S. Air Forces Central Battle Lab hosts an air-to-air drone battle at Poinsett Range in Sumter, South Carolina, April 2, 2026. The event demonstrated the capabilities of air-to-air interceptors. (U.S. Army National Guard photo by Staff Sgt. Tim Andrews)

By VITALIY GONCHARUK • May 04, 2026

After four years of watching the war in Ukraine, NATO defense decision-makers are finally beginning to pour money into drones. The Iran conflict has drawn further attention to these investments. The assumption is that unmanned aerial systems will ensure a long-term advantage in conflicts requiring ground operations and infrastructure defense.

But the battlefield in Ukraine is already pointing toward a different future. Russia is transforming slow, propeller-driven Shahed drones into cheap, missile-like systems by equipping them with turbojet engines. This has sharply complicated Ukrainian air defense, as the new platforms now fly two to three times faster (about 460 miles per hour, compared to 90 miles per hour) and at higher altitudes (about 29,000 feet, versus 6,500 feet) than propeller-driven drones.

As a result, Ukraine’s propeller-based interceptor drones (maximum speed 280 miles per hour) have become much less effective at intercepting their targets. The previous tactic of chasing a target from behind is obsolete. Their only remaining viable interception tactic is a head-on approach, which significantly reduces the hit rate of interceptor drones. The entire concept of low-cost, counter-drone defense based on propeller-driven systems no longer looks as promising as it did two to three years ago.