Resource adequacy risks intensify across North America as demand growth surges

NERC’s 2025 Long-Term Reliability Assessment (LTRA) and infographic spotlight intensifying resource adequacy risks throughout the North American bulk power system (BPS) over the next 10 years. Summer peak demand is forecast to grow by 224 GW, a more than 69% increase over the 2024 LTRA forecast with new data centers for artificial intelligence and the digital economy accounting for most of the projected increase. Winter demand growth continues to outpace summer demand growth with 246 GW of growth forecast over the next 10 years, reflecting the evolution of electricity usage. Uncertainty and lag in the pace of new resource additions are driving heightened concerns that industry will not be able to keep up with rapidly increasing demand.

“This assessment is not a prediction of failure but an early warning on the trajectory of risk,” said John Moura, director of Reliability Assessment and Performance Analysis. “The path forward is still manageable but only if planned resources come online and on time. 

The risk of electricity supply shortfalls is increasing during winter conditions, as generators with diverse fuels retire and are replaced predominantly by solar and batteries and natural-gas-fired generators. This trend in resource additions is reflected in the 2025 LTRA, released today, which finds that new battery resource projects have grown to match solar projections. In addition, natural-gas-fired generator additions represent 15% of the projected capacity additions, followed by wind and hybrid at 8% each. While interconnection queues continue to grow, considerable uncertainty surrounds the timing and amount of resource additions.

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