What lies ahead for nuclear technology and security in 2026?

Following more than half a century of arms control treaties that provided at least some guardrails on nuclear competition, today’s expiration of New START confirms that this architecture has largely unraveled. Over the coming year, nuclear weapons policy is likely to be shaped less by dramatic doctrinal shifts than by the cumulative effects of institutional strain, new proliferation risks, and the challenges posed by integrating emerging technologies into the nuclear domain.

Rather than a single inflection point, policymakers are likely to confront a series of pressures that together are reshaping the strategic environment. The erosion of arms control frameworks, the widening of proliferation risk beyond the traditional countries of concern, and the growing entanglement of nuclear forces with cyber, space, and artificial intelligence systems each pose distinct challenges.

Taken together, they point to a nuclear order that is becoming more fragmented, less predictable, and increasingly difficult to govern through existing institutions.

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