The U.S. Venezuela operation will harden China’s security calculation

The United States’ attack on Venezuela has raised questions about domestic checks on power and signaled a challenge to international law and longstanding norms of sovereignty and the use of force. The priority given to securing U.S. access to Venezuelan oil and other resources further underscores the material interests underlying the operation. Combined with President Donald Trump’s open flirtation with territorial ambitions elsewhere—toward Greenland, if not Canada—the episode has reinforced growing international concern that the administration has taken a significant illiberal turn in foreign policy, shifting away from rule-based order to raw power projection.

Many international analysts argue that illiberal states already disregard international law, so U.S. norm-breaking has little effect on their behavior. A close reading of Chinese expert analyses and Beijing’s existing security mindset suggests otherwise.

Chinese analysts are updating their assessments of both U.S. military capabilities and, more importantly, Trump’s willingness to deploy them. The emerging conclusion is sobering: The United States may often appear a paper tiger, but its fangs can still bite. Beijing is not alarmed about any increased risk of direct U.S. attack against China. Rather, Chinese strategists believe Washington dared to execute such a bold operation in Caracas because of its overwhelming military superiority over a weaker adversary. The lesson Beijing draws is not reassuring: In an international system where major powers more openly practice the principle that “might makes right,” China must further prioritize the accumulation and readiness of hard power. As Chinese realpolitik beliefs grow more rigid, the hard power competition between China and the United States is likely to deepen rather than stabilize.

Read more at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace