The danger in the middle: Will Xi’s purges increase the risk of war?

Chinese leader Xi Jinping has purged dozens of senior People’s Liberation Army officers since mid-2023, including two in January, but will this increase the risk of war? The loss of experienced officers could make Xi less confident in how his military would perform, but his increased power could also provide him greater latitude to order troops into combat to achieve what might be a key legacy for him — the long-elusive unification of China with Taiwan. 

As political scientists recognize, competent leadership is a key ingredient of battlefield effectiveness. Recent purges have removed some of the highest-ranking and most experienced Chinese officers of their generation and underlined Xi’s lack of trust in his own inner circle. Zhang Youxia, who served as vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, which is the highest military decision-making and advisory body in China, was perhaps his closest advisor. Empty chairs at the decision-making table, and in key operational posts throughout the military, will weigh on any leader contemplating a war.  

The disruption, however, will likely be temporary. The greatest prospects for war will be in the medium term of the late 2020s to early 2030s when new commanders are firmly in place. Those officers will have stronger credentials but less power than their predecessors to push back if Xi embraces war optimism. Xi will also be aware that the long-term time horizon will be bleaker. Not only will he be gone, but his successor will have trouble managing a force that could revert to its old habits of corruption and obfuscation. The key for deterrence in these middle years will be to convince Xi himself, moreso than his military advisors, that the risks of aggression remain unacceptable.

Read more at War on the Rocks