Russia rehearsing tactics along NATO’s Baltic frontline

U.S. soldiers operate a drone during a live-fire reconnaissance and c-uas exercise in Selija, Latvia, April 29, 2026. (U.S. Army photo by Spc. Gabriel Martinez)

By Anna J. Davis • May 11, 2026

On May 7, several drones originating from Russia entered Latvian airspace. One crashed at an oil storage facility, while Latvian authorities continued efforts to locate another drone believed to have fallen in Rēzekne municipality (Delfi; Latvian Public Media, May 7). Latvian defense officials chose not to intercept the drones due to concerns over civilian safety and critical infrastructure (Latvian Public Media, May 7). The Latvian president and prime minister said that the drone incidents are a consequence of Russia’s war against Ukraine, while the origin of the drone is not yet confirmed (The Baltic Times; Latvian Public Media, May 7).

The Baltic states are on the frontline of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) defense. Moscow is trying to test and pressure NATO capabilities on this frontline without triggering a clear military response. As they are NATO members, a clear act of military aggression against the Baltic states would trigger Article 5, which stipulates that an attack against one ally is considered an attack against them all (NATO, April 4, 1949). The May 7 drone incident fits a broader pattern of activity that has intensified since Russia launched its full‑scale invasion of Ukraine. The NATO Air Policing mission in the Baltic region scrambled three times within a single week to identify and escort Russian military aircraft operating near Baltic airspace. On April 29, the mission intercepted two Russian SU-24 bombers and a TU-134 aircraft in a separate incident on the same day. On May 1, the mission intercepted and escorted two Russian SU-24M aircraft (LRT, May 4; United24Media, May 5). In all cases, the Russian aircraft either had their transponders switched off, lacked a flight plan, or were not maintaining radio communication with the regional air traffic control center (Lithuanian Ministry of National Defense, May 7). The Russian Ministry of Defense described the flight as routine and compliant with international rules (TASS, April 20).

The repeated incidents reflect a deliberate pattern of Russian pressure on NATO’s frontline. Moscow ultimately views the Baltic region as a key battleground in its broader conflict with the European Union and NATO, expanding from its war against Ukraine, and it considers the Baltic Sea “a potential theater of military operations” (see Jamestown Perspectives, May 27, 2025; see EDM, September 4, 2025).