Netherlands warns against increasing hybrid threat from Russia

The Netherlands’ General Intelligence and Security Service (AIVD) and Military Intelligence and Security Service (MIVD) are concerned about the increased threat of Russian hybrid activities in the gray zone. 

“The Russian military is preparing for the possibility of a conflict with NATO and is conducting various activities to test the West’s willingness to escalate,” the Dutch defense ministry (Defensie) said on February 19. AIVD and MIVD assess that Russia is not yet ready for a large-scale war, but that they are rapidly building towards it. “This does not mean that Russia currently has any actual intention to do so, but it is important to be prepared,” Defensie added.

AIVD and MIVD have jointly published a report, Between Peace and War, that provides insight into the Russian threat and the different ways in which it manifests in Europe. The services note that Russia has been conducting hybrid warfare against the West for some time and that “European countries are already facing cyberattacks, sabotage, influence campaigns and disinformation”.

AIVD and MIVD consider it possible that Russia will deploy hybrid activities, including in the Netherlands, that will actually lead to material damage, physical injury or the disruption of vital processes and damage to vital infrastructure.

“In Russia’s view, the war in Ukraine is clearly part of a broader, existential conflict between clashing worldviews,” Defensie said. “This conflict with the West plays out on military, economic and ideological levels. Therefore, an end to the war against Ukraine likely won’t mean an end to hostility toward the West.”