Imports and influence: China’s growing economic presence in the Gulf

The Arab Gulf monarchies offer a window into the policy implications of China’s rising global economic influence, driven by its substantial manufacturing capacity and growing range of high-tech capabilities. Although Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have been U.S. security partners for decades, growing Chinese energy imports from the region have driven years of commentary about the potential for China to develop a more robust security role in the Gulf. While this has not happened, and is unlikely to do so, the depth and increasing sophistication of China-Gulf economic ties limit the willingness of Gulf states to align with the United States outside of core security matters (such as buying weapons).

Artificial intelligence (AI) technologies are the latest flash point in debates about U.S. and Chinese influence within the Gulf. At the center of the current debate is Gulf state access to advanced microchips produced by U.S.-based firm NVIDIA, and access to U.S. AI expertise more broadly. Both U.S. and Gulf officials have portrayed greater access to advanced U.S. microchips (and expertise more broadly) as an opportunity for Gulf countries to align more closely with the United States after years of deepening Gulf-China economic ties.

Whatever the merits or risks of these deals, however, U.S. policymakers should not expect them to change the outlook of Gulf leaders who are resigned to close security cooperation with the United States (for now) and eager to invest in closer economic ties with China for the foreseeable future. Gulf leaders’ expanding economic ties with China will continue to reflect the state of China’s global economic presence rather than the effectiveness of select U.S. efforts to “win back” the Gulf. AI diplomacy is not a quick fix for expecting more from the Gulf states while offering less, especially while the United States undermines its own ability to generate new technological innovations.

Read more at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace