Damage to Iran’s nuclear program — can it rebuild?

In the immediate aftermath of the U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities on June 22, “Operation Midnight Hammer,” policymakers and experts launched into a heated debate not only about the physical damage of the strikes but also about their impact on Iran’s long-term nuclear ambitions. On the one hand, former Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director David Petraeus concluded that the strikes did significant damage and cautioned against overinterpreting the leaked Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) assessment, which stated that the strikes had a limited effect, written with “low confidence.” Conversely, some journalists and experts argued the strikes “backfired” and caused the Iranian regime to be more defiant.

Recent satellite imagery allows us to have a more realistic picture of the extent of the damage from the Israeli and U.S. strikes. It also provides insights into Iran’s initial efforts to rebuild its nuclear program and can help identify potential pathways for developing a covert nuclear weapons program, including establishing a third site to process its existing stockpile of 400 kilograms (kg) of highly enriched uranium (HEU). We determined that the U.S. and Israeli strikes inflicted significant damage on Iran’s nuclear program by destroying key infrastructure and human capital. Israel’s broader campaign against Iran also targeted military leaders, Iranian missiles, and defense industrial base targets. The precision of these operations revealed a deep penetration of intelligence, particularly by Mossad, into Iran’s nuclear program. The strikes did not, however, completely eliminate the nuclear program, with some infrastructure remaining intact, and the status of the HEU stockpile remains unknown.

But whether or not Iran rebuilds its nuclear program is ultimately a political decision and will depend on three sets of factors: decisionmaking in Tehran, diplomacy with the United States, and Israel.

Read more at Center for Strategic and International Studies