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THREATS TO CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE IN IRAN CONFLICT

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Active cyber defense in the Korean context

(Lee Seunghyub / Unsplash)

By James Andrew Lewis

The Republic of Korea (ROK) faces a uniquely volatile situation in defending its networks, data, and digital infrastructure. Nuclear-armed North Korea (DPRK), unlike other leading state cyberattackers such as Russia, China, and Iran, poses a direct military threat to the ROK and makes use of missile launches, artillery fire, and (in the past) naval activity to threaten, warn, and manipulate ROK and global opinion. Drawing on one example among many, in January 2024, Kim Yo-jong, the sister of North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un, threatened an “immediate military strike” against South Korea in response to any “slight provocation.” While there is a considerable degree of bluster in statements like these, the risks of taking retaliatory action against the DPRK is higher than in any other cyber conflict. This shapes any calculation of active cyber defense, defined as taking action against opponents rather than relying on attempting to deny them access to networks and data.

The international landscape for cyber defense is complicated, as all major cyberattackers are currently insulated from punitive responses—particularly from democracies, given their fear of escalation. For the ROK, however, cyber defense against the DPRK adds the risk of armed conflict—unconventional, conventional, even nuclear—to the equation. While this risk should not be exaggerated, it means that while the ROK needs a general cybersecurity strategy focused on resilience, it must also have a strategy specific to the DPRK based on active defense.

South Korea must also navigate an increasingly uncertain and hostile international environment characterized by significant instability. Expanding threats to global order include China and Russia, alongside a dangerously unaccountable DPRK. U.S. retrenchment is another factor that increases risk. This volatile landscape creates difficult challenges for South Korea’s defense. Adversaries are increasingly engaging in hostile actions. While these actions have so far not involved direct military confrontation, these risks are compounded by opponent perceptions of U.S. weakness and vacillation. In response to these increasing threats, South Korea is reorienting its defense policy and strengthening alliances. 

Read more at Center for Strategic and International Studies

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