How AI could reshape four essential competitions in future warfare

An industry partner configures mission command hardware for Ivy Sting III in December 2025, where soldiers integrated advanced power systems and emerging AI-enabled tools onto Strykers. (U.S. Army photo by Staff Sgt. Tyler Ewing)

By Zachary Burdette, Dwight Phillips, Jacob L. Heim, Edward Geist, David R. Frelinger, Chad Heitzenrater and Karl P. Mueller • Jan 26, 2026

How will advances in artificial intelligence (AI) shape the future of war? There is a growing belief among some policymakers and analysts that AI will transform the future of war, but researchers are still in the early stages of understanding how AI will actually change warfighting.

RAND authors offer a conceptual framework and preliminary assessment to help set the terms for a more systematic debate about AI’s military implications. The authors use the framework to evaluate how AI could affect four “building block” competitions in military affairs: (1) quantity versus quality, (2) hiding versus finding, (3) centralized versus decentralized command and control (C2), and (4) cyber offense versus cyber defense.

Their findings suggest that the U.S. military might need to change important aspects of how it traditionally operates in order to exploit AI’s potential.