Navigating duality in space

Space systems increasingly provide civilian services, such as communications, navigation and environmental monitoring, while also supporting military and intelligence functions. This inherent duality, in which the same satellite can serve peaceful and militaristic roles, could make satellite activities difficult for governments, militaries and commercial operators to interpret. As a result, observers could misread potentially benign behaviors as threatening.

Misinterpretations pose risks to international security and the peaceful use of outer space because nations could take preemptive or defensive measures that escalate to conflict. Despite these stakes, no international norms or governance framework specifically addresses these risks associated with dual-use space systems.

RAND launched the three-year Duality in Space project in 2024 to establish a foundational understanding of dual-use space activities and develop recommendations for a realistic norms or governance regime that stakeholders could implement and uphold. A new report on the project’s first year synthesizes findings from a baseline report, three virtual workshops and project team engagements to characterize the global landscape of dual-use space systems, examine frameworks for identifying these systems, and review current efforts to govern these systems’ use. The project team offers recommendations to inform norms or governance framework development, emphasizing that the framework should assume the dual-use nature of any space system; focus on observable behaviors and effects; include inputs from the full range of space system stakeholders, including nations with both established and emerging space capabilities, industry, and academic and research communities; and address the lag between innovation and governance.

Read more at RAND