CSIS satellite imagery analysis reveals possible signs of renewed nuclear activity in Iran

On October 18, Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs officially announced that all of its obligations under the 10-year-old Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action—the Iran deal—have expired. This declaration formally ends all international oversight of Iran’s nuclear program. Since the June attacks on Iran’s nuclear program by the United States and Israel, Iran has pushed its nuclear program into a new era. Iran’s program is increasingly defined by strategic opacity, operational chaos, and a likely internal culture of fear. New satellite imagery points to emerging risks from Iran’s nuclear program despite the damage from the U.S. and Israeli strikes.

Days before the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear program, International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Grossi stated that Iran was constructing a third enrichment site near Isfahan. There is an underground tunnel just to the north of Isfahan, which is likely the site of the new enrichment facility. Compounding these concerns, on June 24, U.S. Vice President JD Vance suggested that Iran likely still has possession of its existing stockpile of 400 kilograms (kg) of highly enriched uranium (HEU) enriched to 60 percent. Future Iranian efforts to build a nuclear weapon would likely require a new enrichment site capable of producing 90 percent enriched uranium, expanded centrifuge-assembly capacity, and metallurgy facilities to produce uranium hexafluoride (UF₆) for enrichment.

Operation Midnight Hammer and Operation Rising Lion destroyed key areas of Iran’s nuclear program. The United States struck three key nuclear facilities on June 22 at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. Before the strikes, Iran was enriching uranium at Fordow and Natanz and processing uranium metal at Isfahan. Satellite imagery of each of the three facilities reveals virtually zero activity or attempts to rehabilitate these sites. Transformers and power generators were destroyed during the strikes against Natanz, and these essential pieces of site infrastructure have not been reestablished. At Isfahan, debris remains visibly scattered in the roadway, blocking access to many of the damaged buildings. Based on these images, it is clear that the U.S. strikes effectively halted uranium enrichment and uranium processing at these critical sites.

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