North American bulk power system performed reliably in 2025; emerging risks reduce margin for error

The North American bulk power system (BPS) continued to perform reliably in 2025 even as the grid experienced increasing operational complexity. NERC’s 2026 State of Reliability (SOR) finds both measurable reliability improvements and emerging risks associated with the changing resource characteristics, growing demand, and more challenging operating conditions. New and emerging risks are evolving and reducing the margin for error, amplifying the potential for serious events on the bulk power system. Ongoing grid reliability will depend not only on maintaining and expanding infrastructure and resource adequacy, but also on improving industry’s ability to anticipate, model, and mitigate these risks.

“Both system operators and generators are being asked to do things today that they were never originally designed to do at this scale and pace,” said John Moura, director of Reliability Assessment and Performance Analysis. “What we found in this year’s assessment is evidence of both resilience and adaptation, but also a clear signal to stay ahead of the emerging risks before they become operational challenges.”

Attributed in part to industry’s weatherization efforts, the operational performance of conventional generation improved during the most challenging winter weather week of 2025.  However, overall, a reduction in availability occurred throughout the year, largely driven by a decline in the performance of coal and combined-cycle generation. The SOR identified a material increase to 9.2%, above historical norms of 7–8%, in conventional generator forced outage rates with coal and combined-cycle units experiencing a 39.8 TWh and 19.1 TWh increase in unavailable energy, respectively. This is driving a reduction in deployable reserves, which are shrinking as forced outage rates increase, creating potential for tight operating conditions that can lead to system events.  

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