Aluminum’s war shock blunted by dark transits and Chinese supply

The Iran war caused one of the biggest supply shocks to ever hit the aluminum market, but the runaway price surge that many were bracing for has been blunted by the ingenuity of producers from the Middle East to China.

When the conflict began, market watchers warned that unless the Strait of Hormuz reopened quickly, smelters were likely to run out of raw materials within weeks, potentially forcing widespread shutdowns that would plunge the global market into crisis and send prices to record highs above $4,000 a ton.

Those fears escalated dramatically when Iran targeted smelters in the region in missile strikes, and there was broad agreement that aluminum looked set to be one of the worst-hit commodity markets outside of oil and gas. However, in recent weeks Middle Eastern smelters have carried out a series of complex logistical operations — including daring voyages through the strait — to replenish reserves of alumina and other raw materials, helping to avert widespread closures in a region that accounts for nearly 10% of global supply.

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