Why China waits: Beijing is playing a long game on Taiwan

Sonar Technician Surface 3rd Class John Valor stands watch on the bridge aboard the USS Rafael Peralta in the Taiwan Strait, Nov. 2, 2023. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Alexandria Esteban)

By Amanda Hsiao and Bonnie S. Glaser • May 11, 2026

A Chinese military takeover of Taiwan is often portrayed as inevitable and imminent. For many observers, including those writing in Foreign Affairs, U.S. President Donald Trump’s ambivalent public statements about the United States’ commitments to Taiwan’s defense and apparent indifference to the island’s fate might tempt Beijing to achieve unification with Taiwan through military force soon—possibly before the end of 2026. Washington’s war with Iran and the redeployment of U.S. defenses from the Indo-Pacific to the Middle East have further raised concern that China could seize the island without having to fear a U.S. response.

But these speculations misunderstand Beijing’s strategy. China wants to unify with Taiwan at the lowest possible cost, and it currently believes that unification will become easier and less costly as time passes. As China develops the military and economic capabilities to deter U.S. intervention to defend Taiwan, it believes that it can compel the island into capitulation without necessarily needing a full-scale invasion. And in the meantime, Beijing is confident that it can prevent Taiwan from trying to become formally independent.

Of course, China has not ruled out the use of force. There are circumstances in which it would still invade or blockade the island, including if Taiwan were to declare independence, if Washington were to give Taiwan official diplomatic recognition, or if Beijing were to become convinced that there is no pathway to unification that does not require force. But there is little risk of military action in the near term because Beijing increasingly believes that its long-term strategy to bring Taiwan into the fold is working. Polls, for instance, show decreasing support for independence among Taiwan’s youth. And in April, Cheng Li-wun, the chair of Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang (KMT), met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing and reaffirmed her party’s opposition to independence and support for the so-called 1992 Consensus, the political formulation centered on the idea that the two sides of the strait belong to “one China.”