Special report: A perfect storm – Russia losing its war against Ukraine may lead to regime change

Russia is entering a perfect storm of military setbacks, economic deterioration, public dissatisfaction, elite fragmentation, and growing fears of political instability. These conditions could ultimately threaten the durability of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regime. 

The Russian military is facing mounting manpower challenges as casualties reportedly exceed volunteer recruitment, forcing it to rely on convicts, indebted citizens, migrants, and increasingly coercive recruitment practices that lead to reduced battlefield effectiveness. 

Ukrainian long-range drone and deep-strike operations are increasingly disrupting Russian logistics, damaging energy infrastructure, degrading air defenses, and undermining Moscow’s ability to sustain offensive operations. 

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