Blind spot indicators for space

2d Space Launch Squadron members simulate usage of the newly innovated Vehicle Operations Room (VOR) at Vandenberg Space Force Base, Calif., March 5, 2025. The VOR facility will support the Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture mission among others. (U.S. Space Force photo by Senior Airman Kadielle Shaw)

By Louis Abramson, Alexis A. Blanc, Nicholas Blanchette, John Chen, Christian Kim, Baileigh McFall, Thomas Van Bibber, Maggie Habib, Garrett Hinck and Andrew Radin • Jul 16, 2026

The ability of the United States to fight in and through space has disproportionately magnified the effectiveness of U.S. military forces. However, this advantage has been eroding as China ramps up its investments in the space domain.

The speed and scale of China’s sprint to improve its space capabilities should ring alarm bells and prompts the following question: What do current research and development (R&D) efforts portend for future trends in China’s capabilities and operations that use space? Failing to understand these trends creates potential blind spots that could undermine the United States’ ability to maintain an advantage in space.

In a new RAND report, the authors present methodologies for forecasting future U.S.-China space competition using open-source data and present two initial projections using these methodologies. These approaches can be used to decrease the scale and scope of future surprises and help the United States avoid falling behind in key areas of active space competition. With appropriate additional tuning, the methodologies could be extended to additional missions or research domains or matured into production-quality tools. Although it is not possible to avoid surprise entirely, forecasts such as these can help U.S. planners secure an incontrovertible advantage in space.