A living playbook for America’s technology long game

China is often portrayed as either unstoppable—dominating electric vehicles (EVs), batteries, and solar panels—or lacking the creativity to push the technological frontier. The United States is either celebrated as the unquestioned AI leader or criticized for losing its manufacturing base and becoming dangerously dependent on rivals. The reality is more complex—and more instructive.

In 2025, China made AI progress under chip constraints, achieved breakthroughs in robotics and quantum computing, and weaponized its control of rare earth processing, yet it still cannot produce a certified jet engine or compete in high-end machine tools. The United States controls 90 percent of AI chip markets and produces far more advanced AI models than China, yet it has lost much of the manufacturing capacity needed to build at scale and depends on rivals for critical materials.

These patterns cannot just be explained by looking at research and development (R&D) budgets or patent counts. The answer is technological dexterity—the ability to build strengths across different technology types, where advantages in one domain compound advantages in others. AI chips enable AI models, rare earth processing enables chip manufacturing, and machine tools enable precision aerospace components. These technologies reinforce each other, but only when the right ecosystems support them.

Read more at Center for Strategic and International Studies